PSYOP Regimental Blog

Combat Brigade Reduction, Djibouti and PSYOP

2012-01-27T10:27:00.000-08:00

Once upon a time, a long time ago, there were a gazillion Soviet Divisions and America regarded the Division as the building block of the Army. Support functions like MI and PSYOP built their organizations to support these entities and the HQ above them. Today, the Army uses the Brigade as the building block for forces and in keeping with the budget reductions, the Army has announced that it is reducing the number of brigades from “45 to as low as 32” according to a January 25, 2012 article published by the Associated Press (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/01/25/army-to-cut-combat-brigades/).

While this was going on the Navy Seals executed another successful mission in Somalia from a base in Djibouti. The Djibouti base is being hailed as the model for small force footprints for future operations. (Photo Source: http://www.joshuaproject.net/people-profile.php?peo3=14983&rog3=DJ)

Taken together these two items present some interesting challenges and opportunities for PSYOP.

First of all, PSYOP teams will be required to operate independently more than ever before. They will also be expected to be highly deployable, yet able to bring to bear all the sophistication that today’s 7x24 news world demands. Frankly, I have little doubt that the teams will be able to execute their missions brilliantly.

My concern is Command and Control (C2). It appears that the traditional Group, Battalion, Company structure is being turned upside down. Hybrid operations be they Special Operations or General Purpose Force centric will require tailored C2 that can not only direct the operation but bring to bear the ‘reachback’ or other support necessary to conceptualize, produce and distribute the PSYOP work product necessary to succeed in these complex and unstructured missions.

Not only do we need significant organizational flexibility, probably involving well trained 04s and 05s to command and staff these hybrid HQ, but the linkages in doctrine and organization across both the Special and General Purpose Forces to insure seamless integration into the myriad of new missions and environments.

PSYOP and the Starfish

2012-01-17T12:48:00.001-08:00

One of the regular contributors to the Blog recommended that I read “The Starfish and the Spider” by Ori Brafman and Rod Beckstrom. (You can find a good summary at: http://ugnchicago.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Starfish-and-Spider-Ori-Brafman-Summary.pdf)

The premise of the book is that decentralized organizations have neither head nor formal infrastructure – just like the starfish is able to regenerate from a severed leg. One of the beginning vignettes is on how the Spanish Army could easily conquer the Aztecs, but the Apaches got the best of them for 200 years.

The messages for MISO/PSYOP professionals are actually pretty clear. Historically major conflicts have been force on force. Formal military organizations faced each other and the MISO battle was fairly straight forward. It was as I like to call it the “Surrender now and avoid the rush.” Campaign centered on getting the opposing force to surrender. This is no longer the case and the traditional, centralized, military Command and Control of influence operations needs to evolve to deal with ‘starfish’ type enemies.

When Al Qaeda surfaced as a principle enemy after 9/11 the influence war was turned on its head. While we had dealt with non-traditional forces such as the Viet Cong, the notion of a global, decentralized enemy was a new one. While military leaders are ensconced in a formal hierarchy, terrorist organizations such as AQ were a mass of amorphous decentralized cells.

The book proposes three strategies for defeating starfish:

1. Changing Ideology

Life is hopeless vs. there is hope, I can make my life better

2. Centralize them

Change from no hierarchy to some form of top down. Provides resources to the formerly resource poor leaders so that they become more fixated on using the resources for reward, etc.

3. Decentralize yourself – if you can’t beat’em join’em

Just how relevant are these suggestions to PSYOP/MISO?

For one thing PSYOP must work hand in glove with the Embassy Team and Civil Affairs to help eliminate or minimize the root causes that are stimulating the opposing force. By eliminating or reducing the root causes, the effect is to change the environment and with it the ideology driving the starfish.

Secondly, I believe MISO needs to be as decentralized as possible to be able to tailor the influence approach to the target at hand. However, we need to empower MISO soldiers with the resources needed to do the job whether this is a robust ‘reachback’ or cultural and linguistic resources or support of local credible spokespeople.

As we ponder which organization will be the Branch Proponent we need to take a serious look a doctrine and learn how to deal with the starfish and what other creatures come up.

A Rare Good Example: Libyan Rappers

2012-01-12T14:04:00.001-08:00

The January 11, 2012 issue of the NY Times featured an article “Now Able To Exhale, Libyan Rappers Find a Voice” (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/11/world/africa/young-libyans-revel-in-freedom-to-speak-out.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Now%20Able%20to%20Exhale&st=cse) which is also the photo source.)

The article talks about the new found freedom of expression in Libya. The GAB Crew have apparently been able to express themselves in ways they couldn’t even contemplate under Qaddafi. The group’s efforts are especially noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First of all of they represent a key demographic of individuals across the globe, especially those within Islamic societies. Secondly they have an international audience by virtue of appearing on You Tube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hyULOKDL_o)

PSYOP/MISO is like an orchestra. The end product is the cumulative effect of all the individual ingredients. Credible, local people are the best spokes people in virtually all situations. In some cases, especially where the language is common, the arts – specifically video and audio and can have dramatic effects on a number of audiences.

The GAB Crew appear to be a very good example of efforts that should be reported upon and supported.

Force Development Based on Fixed Parameters in a Variable World = Recipe for Disaster

2012-01-05T12:20:00.000-08:00

I have some real concerns about the future of MISO under the newly released (5 January 2012) military strategy. (see http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf). The goal of the strategy is to protect America while optimizing the defense expenditures over the next decade. There is no argument about the complexity of the future security environment and the primary missions of the Joint Force are equally clearly stated as:

· Counter Terrorism & Irregular Warfare

· Deter and Defeat Aggression (1.5 major state conflicts)

· Project Power Despite Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges

· Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction

· Operate Effectively in Cyberspace and Space

· Maintain a Safe, Secure and Effective Nuclear Deterrent

· Defend the Homeland and Provide Support to Civil Authorities

· Provide a Stabilizing Presence

· Conduct Stability and Counterinsurgency Operations

· Conduct Humanitarian, Disaster Relief and Other Operations

While the new strategy clearly states: “Likewise, DoD will manage the force in ways that protect its ability to regenerate capabilities that might be needed to meet future, unforeseen demands, maintaining intellectual capital and rank structure that could be called upon to expand key elements of the force.” The document goes on to say that the “active-reserve component balance” and other factors “is a key part of our decision calculus”. And “The challenges facing the United States today

and in the future will require that we continue to employ National Guard and Reserve forces.

The expected pace of operations over the next decade will be a significant driver in

determining an appropriate AC/RC mix and level of RC readiness.”

The President clearly wants to communicate to the American people that he understands tomorrow’s threats and that he and the DOD are aware of the challenges of defeating these threats while getting the best bang for the buck.

Many of the missions stated above are MISO/PSYOP heavy. Some of them, like Irregular Warfare and Cyber Operations are being executed while their supporting doctrine, legal ROE and TTP are being developed. This means that the picture of the Joint Force (JF) needed to fight and win these battles and conflicts is still emerging. It also means that the influence warrior of tomorrow will need to be pound for pound more agile and adaptable than any in history.

The restrictions placed on the force will also challenge the supply and deployability of trained and competent individuals. All of this implies that DOD must approach MISO Force Development with a view to the total competency of the force. Leveling of talent means leveling of training and other requirements. The difficult component balance challenge decisions that have been floating around for years need to be acted upon quickly or else the MISO force will be left on the wayside like yesterday’s weapons systems.

Unfortunately Congress has been historically focused on weapons and programs because they bring local jobs which bring local votes.

Somehow, the MISO/PSYOP Community at all levels needs to energize itself upward and the responsible DOD Senior Executives need to step forward quickly to bolster the funding and resourcing needed by the MISO Force expected to carry out this new strategy.

Good OPSEC Helps To Control PSYOP

2011-12-23T13:11:00.000-08:00

The death of Kim Jong Il, seemed to have taken the Western World by surprise. The viel of secrecy over North Korea allowed the North Koreans to pick their time and their messages concerning the death of one leader and the succession of his handpicked replacement. While the West scurries about trying to figure out what will happen to North Korea, the world’s most secretive country moves forward anointing their new leader.

The December 23, 2011 Wall Street Journal featured an article: “Kim Ki Nam has one of the toughest jobs in North Korea” (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203686204577114193593219330.html). The lead in the article is “The 82-year-old former professor heads the department in North Korea's ruling party responsible for filling North Koreans' minds with awe, devotion and unswerving respect for the dictatorial Kim dynasty.” No doubt multiple government agencies are now preaching the gospel of Kim Jong Eun (photo source AP via the WSJ).

The North Koreans are master propagandists. They have shown their ability to create myths, recast history and seem to be able to mold the thoughts of one of the poorest nations on earth. One of the ways that they have been able to maintain such an ideological grip is because of the ‘lock down’ nature of the society and the government’s almost total control of life north of the 38^th parallel.

A key take away for PSYOP/MISO is that OPSEC can be a ‘booster shot’ for campaigns. By shielding the target audience from key facts or events, the launch of an influence campaign can be that much more effective.

This will be my last post until the week of 9 January 2012. To all my readers – the best to you and yours for the Holiday Season and may 2012 be your best year ever!

Unity of Command?

2011-12-15T13:28:00.000-08:00

The principle of Unity of Command is a core tenet of military operations. Unity of Command increases accountability, prevents freelancing, improves the flow of information, helps with the coordination of operational efforts, and enhances operational safety.

There is no denying that today’s battlefield is unlike those of the past. Afghanistan has evolved throughout the past decade into a mosaic of AOs, each with its own bred of enemy. PSYOP, now MISO is critical to the battle and to the maintenance of a lasting peace. Given the length of the conflict and the amorphous nature of the enemy, not to mention the criticality of the recalcitrant ally, Pakistan, it would seem that DOD should do all it can to organize for success.

The diagram at right is my view of the PSYOP/MISO chain of command. To quote Harry Truman, the buck stops at the top, in this case with the Secretary of Defense. To even the most casual of observers this should appear ludicrous. Even if we argue that the MISG and the POG are troop providers, there is no easy way to determine if the forces being provided are trained and ready for the mission at hand.

In my view the force needs to be united and united under a single Command. Furthermore, the Branch Proponent as to be the Proponent for entire branch, not just one component or the other. While President Obama may declare the war in Iraq over today (15 December 11), it is not since Iraq has not shown that it is capable of standing on its own. The notion of Afghanistan being self-sufficient after 2014 is also pretty farfetched at this point.

Influence operations support will likely be more in demand over time. As yet unnamed conflicts in Africa, Latin America and Asia will surely require PSYOP/information support. This support cannot be developed overnight. As we stare the budget cuts in the face, it is incumbent on DOD to finally get off the dime and move RC PSYOP back into the SOF world where it belongs.

SWC As the Branch Proponent

2011-12-06T15:04:00.000-08:00

This week, I'm asking for your help. I am interesting learning how y'all view SWC as a proponent. What have they done right? What are they doing wrong? What do you think they should being doing that they are not?

It has been my philosophy to post every anonymous comment I get except if it's commercial, SPAM, etc. If you would rather e-mail me then use ldietz@talgobal.com

Have a very good week.

Logo source: http://www.soc.mil/swcs/about.html

LDD

NATO Attack on Pakistan: Taliban PSYOP or Fog of War?

2011-12-01T15:01:00.001-08:00

There is no question that relations between the US and Pakistan are in the crapper. The latest debacle was a NATO Attack on Pakistani forces on 26 November 2011. The incontrovertible facts are that at least 24 Pakistani soldiers died as a result of the attack. (See “Afghans say commando unit was attacked before airstrike was called on Pakistan - http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/afghans-say-unit-was-attacked-before-airstrike/2011/11/28/gIQAX6ZY5N_story.html)

Pakistan maintains the attack was deliberate, the US says it was not and the Afghans frankly don’t seem to give a sh*t . Conservative leaning publication, the Washington Times ran an article “US suspects NATO was lured into raid” (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/29/pakistan-calls-nato-raid-act-aggression/)

If it’s not the fog of war, it certainly is the fog of who can get their facts straight and their story out. A rash of other stories are circulating about whether or not the US will apologize, whether the mil to mil relationship between the two countries will continue and of course what does it portend for the region after the US withdraws the bulk of its forces as forecasted.

For the influence profession we can learn some powerful lessons:

1. If it is true that the Taliban were clever enough to orchestrate attacks or targeted fires to provoke an attack – this means that there are some pretty big holes in the ROE and the process of confirming your targets. It also means that once again a supposedly primitive foe has demonstrated some very sophisticated thinking

2. PAO and MISO/PSYOP must be on the same page. PSYOP may have the ability to provide PAO with input, insight, file footage and/or other help. Of course due care must be taken so that PAO’s integrity and credibility is not compromised.

3. PAO needs to counsel GOs and other senior leaders on what to say and perhaps, more importantly what not to say in fluid and uncertain situations.

4. As shown by the photo from the Washington Post, any excuse will be deemed a good one by our enemies to show popular sentiment against NATO and the US.

5. Bad news, unlike wine and chicken soup, does not get better with age. Speed is of the essence with regard to investigations and getting the word out.

6. Notwithstanding the most neutral of investigations people will believe that they want to so contingency counter propaganda and demonstration plans must be implemented.

7. The strategic importance of Pakistan as an ally mandates the diplomatic channels to include President Obama need to be engaged. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister for example is quoted in the Washington Post as being ready to pull Pakistan’s support of the US war on militancy. Ministers are influenced by diplomats, typically not by military personnel.

No matter what the truth is behind the attack, all of us need to consider the lessons to be learned and the ways and means to avoid a similar situation in the future.

Simply Don’t Get It or Too Much Political Correctness?

2011-11-25T09:06:00.001-08:00

Normally I only do one post a week, but the Politico (a source I never heard of before and cannot vouch for their political leanings or view) 11/23/11 article “Cross removed at base in Afghanistan” (seehttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69039.html) struck me as something worth covering.

As shown in the photo (from the same source), apparently there was a very large cross on the outside of the chapel at Camp Marmal. A Facebook page about the camp quotes Wikipedia “Camp Marmal is the largest base of the Bundeswehr outside of Germany. It is located outside of Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan, at the foot of the Hindu Kush mountains. The camp was opened in September 2005. The camp gets its name from the bordering Marmal Mountains.”

The article was picked up by UPI and probably some others. According to the article the cross was taken down because it violated DOD rules.

As I recall one of the senior generals in Afghanistan, perhaps General McChrystal was instrumental in removing signs that the American force were ‘distinctly American” and alluded to the fact that ISAF was going to be there for a while.

Should the base CDR, be they American, German or any other NATO nation have permitted the cross in the first place? Does a large religious symbol of a Western religion offend Afghanis? What would the effect have been if there was a Star of David or a Wiccan Symbol?

Does the feeling of comfort to Christian soldiers (as quoted in the article) outweigh the likely negative perception of the Afghans?

I’ll leave it to you. If you have one, enjoy the long Holiday weekend.

Digital Engagement = Cyber Counter PSYOP

2011-11-23T09:23:00.000-08:00

A colleague referred me to a 17 November 2011 article in the NY Times headed: “U.S. Military Goes Online to Rebut Extremists’ Messages” (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/world/us-military-goes-online-to-rebut-extremists.html?_r=2&ref=global-home). The article talks about a Digital Engagement Team (DET) reportedly established in 2008. The team chief, MAJ David E. Nevers was quoted as describing the teams mission to “counter extremist ideology, promote cultural awareness and explain U.S. interests,”.

The article provides a description of the team and the languages they cover (Arabic, Dari, Persian, Pashto, Urdu and Russian in case you’re interested). The Times compares the open efforts of the DET with the highly classified and generally shielded US military efforts in Computer Network Operations (CNO).

The DET’s engagements are “transparent and attributable” according to MAJ Nevers. The team’s approval cycle can take hours and while, as the Times points out, this isn’t ‘real-time’ it’s a heck of a lot faster than any approval cycle I’ve been a part of.

The article also refers to the State Department’s Digital Outreach Team as a complementary effort headed by Richard LeBaron, a former Ambassador to Kuwait, that organization’s coordinator.

There is no question that the DET is a laudable effort, complimented as both effective and cost-efficient by Brian Fishman, a counterterrorism analyst at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan research group in Washington in that same article.

There are two reasons I’ve pulled this article for today’s post. First of all we hear so much negative crap about the influence war, it’s nice to see something positive for a change. However, perhaps more intriguing are the questions the DET raises to me:

1. Are they part of the MISO element to CENTCOM or the STRATCOM element, or are they an organizational hybrid?

2. To whom does the DET OIC (Officer in Charge) report to and what senior officers are in his rating chain?

3. Is this simply a ‘one off’ created because of Centcom’s AO?

4. Given that the DET’s actions are really global because their WWW AO is amorphous, how can a single Combatant CDR be given responsibilities for the other AOs?

5. Do they have a set of ROE and formal procedural guidelines?

6. While measures of effectiveness (MOE)are notoriously absent from this kind of endeavor, are we capturing the lessons learned and TTP in a systematic way to be applied elsewhere?

7. Are we aware of similar allied efforts and have we tried to promulgate this type of effort through NATO?

8. Does it make sense to set up a similar PACOM effort to address the Asian AO?

The DET passes the common sense test and appears to be a good idea whose time has come, I’m just wondering if we’re making the most of it.

Speaking of ‘making the most of it’, take some time to enjoy your family friends during the Holiday Season. As we learn, life is short and unpredictable. I’ve already lost a colleague to a fatal stroke this year and another is in a hospital after his stroke. Neither were military and both were part of the information security industry – the lesson is enjoy what you can with gusto.

Happy Holidays

Photo Source: CENTCOM official Website (http://www.centcom.mil/en/about-centcom/leadership/)

Occupy Wall Street As A PSYOP Laboratory

2011-11-18T10:02:00.000-08:00

I find the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement to be a fascinating sociological phenomenon. For one thing it spans multiple geographic areas simultaneously. For another, it doesn’t seem to have a hierarchy nor a stated specific purpose. OWS is unlike the classic protests of the 1960s and 70s which were formed to protest the war in Viet Nam or even the popular movements called the Arab Spring which were focused protesting government rule and in my view may be indicative of future activities.

(Photo Source: CDC, Atlanta, GA www.cdc.gov)

The noted former Presidential Advisor, Richard Clarke once said “The future will not be like the past.” To me the Arab Spring and the OWS are perhaps a window into the future and as such are worthy of detailed study by PSYOP/MISO professionals. Both are mass movements involving significant amounts of people. Both have provoked kinetic and non-kinetic government responses and both have managed to put a spotlight on how governments react.

In previous postings I addressed the combination of physical and cyber action and used the San Francisco based protests of Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) actions as examples. Recently there were some reports indicating that Anonymous was going to add another dimension to their activities by attacking the broadcast media. See:

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2011/11/anonymous-to-occupy-the-airwaves.html#.TsMDTh6QFKM.facebook

http://blogs.computerworld.com/19278/occupy_the_airwaves_will_anonymous_hijack_tv_and_radio_stations?source=rss_blogs

Going back to the laboratory concept for a moment, overseas PSYOP/MISO could find itself in a precarious position – having to not only defend the government’s actions, but to counter PSYOP of organized protest groups and disaffected individuals.

This kind of counter-campaign will require incredible creativity and resiliency at the Team level. It will require NCOs in particular who have diplomatic and cultural skills as well as the pre-requisite multi-media and face to face influence skills.

Given the tenor and the tone of many of the comments I have received over the past several weeks, I don’t doubt that we have the individuals up to the task. The question I raise is do we have the doctrine, TTP and resources to back them up? Furthermore, have we really solidified the link-up between DOD and the Department of State so that MISO is reinforcing the messages promulgated by the Ambassador and the Country team?

Can Music Soothe The Savage Extremist?

2011-11-10T15:02:00.000-08:00

The Islamabad based Beygairat Brigade (A Brigade Without Honor) was covered in article in the November 7, 2011 NY Times. (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/world/asia/beygairat-brigades-youtube-hit-song-challenges-extremism-in-pakistan.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Satrical%20Song,%20a%20You%20Tube%20Hit&st=cse) talks about a satirical song that seems to be able to do the impossible: openly criticize bedrock institutions such as the military and religious leaders.

The acceptance of the song, “Aalu Anday” and its popularity on YouTube (see: http://www.youtube.com/user/BeygairatBrigade) says much about deep feelings in Pakistan. The Times notes that the song is not only popular on YouTube, but is the topic of conversation on Social media as well as the news media. (Photo source: YouTube - same URL)

What does this mean to PSYOPers (I can’t bring myself to say MISOers)? A couple of things. First of all, affected citizens are much more able to harness their culture, language and arts to express their inner most feelings. Satire by well meaning and credible entertainers can often have a more profound effect that the costliest of campaigns.

It is also important to take note of the synergy between the Internet via Social Media and YouTube and leverage that presence puts on the traditional media to take notice. Of course the digital media is a much more important conduit to the younger (teens, 20’s and 30s) demographic, however, traditional media influences other audiences such as political and perhaps even religious leaders.

While I don’t suspect we’ll see many extremists put down their AK47s and reach for their iPad, it’s nice to a have a positive example in a tumultuous country in challenging times for a change.

NATO Joint Senior PSYOP Conference – Consistency in A World of Turmoil

2011-11-02T08:31:00.000-07:00

From 31 October through 3 November I am having the pleasure of attending the 24^th Annual NATO Joint Senior PSYOP Conference. Hosted by the Joint Special Operations University (JSOU), the event is attended by representatives from over a dozen countries.

This year’s conference is focused on navigating social media and the hosts have gathered a diverse group of speakers from the military, commercial sector, and academia to provide the attendees with a broad range of thought provoking information.

I’m posting at the end of day 2 of 3 and ½. Here are some of the key points you may find of interest:

· Researchers are studying the social media aspects of the Arab Spring and the Occupy movement to see if there are any lessons learned or techniques that should be considered for future operations.

· An interesting angle on analysis is to figure out “what does the enemy worry about” and what don’t they want their audience to believe.

· There will always be no shortage of pictures or video because the population at large is recording what they see.

· Russia is not censoring the Internet, but is using organized crime as a proxy and entertainment (porn) to assuage their population.

· Contractors on the battle field are a fact of life.

· Common causes/issues behind the Arab Spring include:

o Governments rife with patronage and corruption

o Economic problems

o Inability for populations to effect change in their government

o A large and discontent young population

· Al Qaeda’s messaging is becoming irrelevant

· Some in mass movements (Occupy, Flash Mobs) may be motivated by the sense of a fulfilling experience – not necessarily any causes or deep meanings.

· Behavior changes can often be initiated through small, incremental steps.

· Conflicts occur across a ‘difference’ boundary, in other words a divide.

· NATO may be well known, but what it stands for is not. NATO needs to ‘re-brand’ itself so that the current generation knows why NATO exisits.

· Cyber conflict and incidents dos not have to be waged by governments, but cyber war does.

· Afghanistan isn’t a 10 year war, but 10 one year wars due to rotation of personnel.

· Relationship based societies do not want to be re-cast into transaction based societies.

· There is a difference between teaching and fostering learning.

· Trust is a cornerstone.

· New strategies and operational concepts/techniques need to be developed to allow forces to be in the fight, but not at the fight. (Witness Libya)

· Cyber War is a legal quagmire.

· Cyber War effects may be flu like rather than measureable like body count.

· Cyber War will likely be a prelude to kinetic war.

· Cyber Influence (CyIn) requires all source battlefield preparation.

· CNO require technology profiling of the battlefield.

My service at the NATO HQ in Bosnia was a great experience for me because I had the rare opportunity of working side by side with military and civilian personnel from throughout the NATO alliance. Shared experience builds more than bonds, it builds the kind of relationships that are needed to fight and win today’s and tomorrow’s conflicts.

As always, reader input invited.

Newspapers and MISO

2011-10-28T10:48:00.000-07:00

Military Information Support Operations (MISO) professionals have to keep up on media trends since the media is one of the tools of our trade. On the evening of 27 October 2011 I had the pleasure of attending a lecture by an old newspaper pro. Leigh Weimers (see http://www.blogger.com/profile/07736754076238062550).

He retired from the San Jose Mercury News in 2005 after a 47 year career there, the last 40 years of which were spent writing a very popular column on San Jose happenings. When Weimers joined the paper there were about 125 people on the news end, at the high point of the paper’s circulation, just before the Dot Com Bust, the staff had mushroomed to 625. San Jose’s population was about 100,000 when Weimers started and it’s over 1 million today and ranked as America’s tenth largest city. Interestingly enough the paper’s news staff is less today than it was almost 50 years ago.

Photo Source: Leigh Weimers Blog

While it wouldn’t be prudent to extrapolate US newspapers in general or the San Jose Mercury News in particular to any other geographic area, especially areas of operation outside the US, it is always useful to learn about history and trends.

First of all Weimers believes that ‘young’ people (meaning 20 – 45 I suppose) are not reading actual newspapers but are getting their news on line. I would have to say that my personal experience is that this assumption is mostly true and holds true for most countries where I have traveled in Asia and Europe as well as the U.S.

Large metropolitan newspapers have suffered badly because their classified ad revenue has declined in favor of free Internet advertising such as Craig’s List, Monsters.com, Linkedin, etc. Weimers said that 70% of the paper’s revenue came from classified ads. Free is a pretty good price and according to Weimers no one is willing to pay for quality journalism. Since it would be hard to have the same level of resources with such a reduced revenue level.

In our world, we come across nations where the media is run by the government – that’s who paying for it. At issue on the ground is how much credibility and influence that media has on its readers when everyone knows the state is not an impartial reporter nor concerned with winning many Pulitzers.

Some publishes like Rupert Murdoch are seeking to exploit electronic media. The Daily (http://www.thedaily.com/) is specifically designed for the iPad. Subscribers pay about $40 a year. Reports about the venture launched in February 2011 indicate that the project isn’t even close to breaking even. Of course iPad owners are an elite group and even a small population of them may be desirable to certain advertisers and in some cases may be targets of focused MISO efforts.

Selected publications that have established news niches like the Wall Street Journal may be able to make the leap to pay for content because they have developed a following. Weimers cited that only 14% of iPad owners pay for their news.

For others, local focus is the key. By covering news that is not covered elsewhere: city council meetings, county political news, local sports, obituaries, etc. small papers, especially rural ones are able to survive as business ventures.

For MISO the implications are clear:

1. CyberInfluence (CyIn) must be as much a core part of our tool box as leaflets and loud speakers.

2. There is no substitute for the team on the ground learning the nature of the environment.

3. Local media will likely be the most effective at the tactical level, but must be carefully studied through the appropriate cultural and linguistic filters to determine where and how it fits in the mix.

4. Age demographics are key.

As always, reader input invited.

Gray PSYACTs and the Occupy Wall Street Movement

2011-10-19T08:41:00.000-07:00

Recently I did a posting on Black Propaganda based on a publication I bought on my recent visit to Bletchley Park early in October 2011. In that posting I asserted that in today’s world it is quite difficult to shield a ‘true’ source for any length of time.

Along the same lines several publications published stories that indicated that certain NGOs or philanthropic organizations were secretly funding the protestors of the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. Whether those stories were a result of bad analysis and/or lack of fact checking or planted to discredit the protestors as tools of the, or even whether or not there is some truth behind them remains to be seen.

However, we now are seeing several articles such as these cited below proffering ‘mea culpas’.

Soros: not a funder of Wall Street protests

<http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/us-wallstreet-protests-funding-idUSTRE79D01Q20111014>

 and some media self-flagellation at:

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/18/occupy-movement-protesters>
<http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jonty-langley/occupy-wall-street-founde_b_1013804.html>

From a MISO standpoint, the battle for influence, like kinetic battles ebb and flow. Today’s news wafts
away quickly as it is replaced by more interesting and more powerful images, events or reports.

Let me offer an unpopular view for a change. In fluid situations perhaps it’s a good idea to potentially
employ gray PSYOP and PSYACTs as a tactic to break the adversary’s momentum, perhaps like drawing
a penalty in sports that halts the other team’s offense and gives your defense a chance to regroup or
takes the crowd out of the game.

Timing of these injections is critical. It is also critical to insure that you have your counter plan ready
so that if the gray stuff is traced to you or your source you can quickly acknowledge,
employ proper counter measures.

As always, Reader comments invited.

The PSYOP of Protests - Occupy Wall Street Applied

2011-10-13T17:20:00.001-07:00

There has been much ado about the “Occupy Wall Street” Movement here in the US during September and October of 2011. The late night news on 12 September had extensive coverage of how the ‘movement’ was spreading throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.

As it turns out, I was attending the 1^st San Jose Cyber Security Summit at the San Jose, CA City Hall. After watching the news last night I was more than curious to see the extent of the protest live. I took the photo in today’s posting using my iPhone, so I can assure you it was not retouched in any way. It turns out to be a ‘long shot’ with the tent accommodations of some of the protestors in the foreground and a bunch of ‘protestors’ about 75 feet away near Santa Clara Street, the main thoroughfare near the City Hall.

If the effect makes the entire effort look sparse – it’s because it was! This is in stark contrast to the tight shots being used on TV last night which gave the viewer the impression that there were quite a bit more protestors than in reality.

What’s all mean? Gatherings of crowds can serve useful purposes of anyone who is astute enough to photograph them in a way that supports their case. Magnifying the size and scope of a gathering serves to amplify the message. This amplification can serve to stimulate recruitment, increase media coverage, provide useful ‘background roll” for later use or all of the above.

Merely showing a group of people protesting doesn’t prove anything by itself. Analysts would have to look at the objective size of the crowd, their demographics, trends in the previous days or weeks and compare this analysis with other similar situations.

For influence professionals it’s a gift! Images of various demographic groups, particularly individuals whose image clearly portrays a specific group can be very effective in promoting one’s cause. Counter propaganda analysts need to not only perform the objective analysis , but determine the potential uses our enemy could make of the images and recommend what the best counter messages might be.

In the Internet age the local protest can turn into the strategic message very quickly.

Black Propaganda: It Worked in WWII – Would It Work Today?

2011-10-05T03:49:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I had the great pleasure of visiting Bletchley Park, the home of the UK WWII Codebreakers. I purchased a monograph “Black Propaganda” by John Pether which discusses the British Black Propaganda (BP) efforts against the Germans in WWII. For those unfamiliar with the term, there are three classes of propaganda:

1. White – true source readily identifiable

2. Black – designed to represent other than the true source

3. Gray – no indications of source.

Photo Source: http://www.bletchleypark.org.uk/content/hist/history.rhtm

During WWII Britain conducted a three pronged BP effort. They employed radio stations, printed matter and agents to foster a number of their influence goals such as creating resistance to the occupying forces and undermining the ‘quisling’ Nazi-supporting governments established in occupied countries.

Let me pose the question: if we arbitrarily divided target sets into urban and rural, is it possible that BP campaigns using the same media as well as more high tech media in appropriate markets (mobile phones, Internet, fax, e-mail, etc.) would be effective today?

My gut reaction is that they might be effective for very short period of times, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the negative impact of exposure would undermine whatever credibility the BP campaign promulgator might have had in the first place.

BP might be appropriate to achieve a very limited tactical objective such as trying to get an enemy force to behave or not behave in a certain manner for a short period of time.

Overall however, I believe as Gartner Analyst Richard Hunter put it, we live in “A World Without Secrets” (Available from Amazon at: http://www.amazon.com/World-Without-Secrets-Ubiquitous-Computing/dp/0471218162)

The close knit nature of tribes in rural target areas and the ultimate exposure of almost anything by Internet savvy Bloggers and others seem to guarantee that keeping sources secret over long period of times is not nearly as easy today as it was 50 or more years ago.

Reader comments earnestly solicited.

MISO and the Generation Gap

2011-10-01T14:10:00.000-07:00

For the past week I have been attending an elite information security conference (www.COSAC.net) in Ireland. Unlike most cyber security conferences which are mired in technical details, this one explores higher level issues.

Photo Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/joi/455111587/#/photos/joi/455111587/lightbox/

One of the more interesting topics was the nature of personal privacy or the lack thereof on the Internet. A key side bar was the fact that the younger generation has little or no concerns and is given to texting and social networks for even the most intimate communications.

There are a number of important PSYOP principles that flow from these trends. First of all, as Sun Tzu would advise - know your target. This means campaigns addressed to younger audiences probably should be crafted by that age group.

A second observation is that lack of expected privacy opens up a significant opportunity for the potential use of deception in the IO campaign.

Thirdly, denial of electronic communications can mean infliction of a high level of stress and anxiety.

Consequently, campaigns targeting any age specific population group should employ a collaborative environment that includes people within the target age categories in addition to appropriate linguistic and cultural knowledge. If such a mix is not available, then it is highly recommended that rigorous pretesting be employed prior to launching the campaign.

Taken To Task – And Lovin’ It

2011-09-20T08:01:00.000-07:00

Over the past few weeks Voodoo and Anonymous have been quite vocal in their thoughts and opinions. Frankly I couldn’t be more delighted! The military is a team sport and each of us has a position to play. Of course standing in one position you can only get one view of what’s going on. In order to succeed it is critical to understand and appreciate the other points of view. Unless you are able to develop the broader perspective, your enemy is bound to win.

As most of you readers know I started my career in MI and moved into PSYOP about half way through my career. However, I did have two pure MI jobs in CAPOC units: S2 at the 7^th POG and G2 at the 351^st CA Command. The fact that I was able to move in and out of MI slots in both active and reserve organizations was something I just took for granted and it wasn’t until Voodoo’s last comment that this transparency came back to me.

Clearly if MI and SF have been able to develop mission/slot transparency then we in the MISO world must do the same. Officers and NCOs have to work synergistically to accomplish this goal. Officers, especially at the GO level can pave the way for force development and training by helping to orchestrate the funding and other resources that are necessary. The Officer Corps is responsible for managing up to the DOD even though it is our collective responsibility to ‘educate’ Congress as much as we can.

Soldier training however must be the province of the NCOs. While good officers understand what their soldiers do on the job and can pitch in when necessary, we are just not in a position to determine the proper training strategy and the details behind it. This assumes that NCOs are thinking about what soldiers need to accomplish and in their role of ‘running the Army’ consider the best ways and means of insuring that all MISO soldiers, regardless of component, are able to perform to the same standard.

As a nation we are entering a new and critical era. The pressure on budget cuts will not ignore the Department of Defense and the Army will certainly not be immune either. It’s possible that the Special Operations Community will fare better than the rest, but they too may face cuts. This means that the MISO community needs to think a bit into the future. Military slots will be harder to come by and to get the better ones, like MISO and MI, soldiers and officers alike will have to bite the bullet in terms of the usual doing more with less, but also in terms of time commitments outside of combat tours.

The demand for troops (not necessarily contractors of course) is down in Iraq and is on a down ward trend in Afghanistan. Notwithstanding needs in Africa and Latin America, the handwriting on the wall is for military cuts.

Top level leadership needs to accelerate the pace for a decision on the future of the MISO force and if it is all going to be one happy family under SOF, let’s do it and move forward, if not let’s decide that as well. In any event it is incumbent on SWC in concert with their AC and RC customers to craft a forward thinking training strategy that will optimize the force and takes into account the lean times that are likely to be ahead of us.

RC MISO Reintegration Into SOF Nixed By Dep Asst Sec Def for SO and CT

2011-09-12T09:36:00.000-07:00

Highly reliable intelligence sources have indicated that Garry P. Reid, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Combating Terrorism did in fact non-concur with the recommendation to designate RC MISO forces as SOF. The Secretary admitted that “..the current situation with RC MISO forces is clearly sub-optimal and must be changed” and that “Since RC MISO forces were moved out of SOF in 2006, they have experienced significant difficulties obtaining support from the Army, and the overall influence capability of the department has suffered as a result.”

Secretary Reid also said that his office “is willing to lead an effort to fully consider all options for the RC MISO force and related inform and influence capabilities and organizations or to participate as a full partner in any discussions or working groups.”

The Secretary’s action begs me to ask the question “who is in charge of fixing the problem”? As a CDR and High Tech Executive I used to thank staff for bringing me a complete and detailed description of a problem, then -- I would ask them for a recommended solution.

While I have never worked in the Pentagon, and confess I really don’t understand all the machinations of the different offices there, I believe this kind of inaction without proposing alternatives to be considered reflects a lack of organizational courage. The buck has to stop somewhere and frankly we are past the time for it do so.

Photo Source: http://policy.defense.gov/solic/soct/leadership.aspx

A 9/11 Commentary

2011-09-09T12:59:00.001-07:00

All of us were affected by 9/11 one way or another. Whether it was multiple OCONUS tours or getting used to taking your shoes off at airports. On one hand MISO optempo remains brisk and DOD can’t seem to get its collective act together to address problems that are generally acknowledged.

On the other hand, individual MISO soldiers continue to exceed expectations on the job and can take pride in their ability to support the CDR across the globe and combat spectrum. The past decade has witnessed long and expensive wars. Iraq is no longer an enemy state run by a dictator, but it is surely not a democratic friend either.

Afghanistan remains a sub-feudal state with ingrained corruption and a populace that doesn’t appreciate our presence there more than they did the Russians.

An unfortunate and generally ignored by-product of all this is the welfare of the men and women who have sacrificed much to support their country by doing whatever was asked of them, when it was asked and wherever that duty took them.

Over the years many of our brothers and sisters who have served have not fared well after their service. Unemployment, depression, addiction and homelessness have been their companions. As you think about life after 9/11, consider why you should be thankful for what you have.

My personal remembrance for 9/11 will be volunteering at a VA organized stand down for homeless veterans, remember and support our brothers and sisters in the way you are most comfortable, for any one of us could have been or may need the support of others in the future.

FAQ on VA Stand down in Boulder Creek, CA: http://www.paloalto.va.gov/sbsd_faq.asp. Photo source: http://www.paloalto.va.gov/sbsd_directions.asp

Hactivists and the Internet: Lessons For PSYOP/MISO

2011-08-29T12:12:00.000-07:00

The 8/26/2011 issue of netgov (http://www.nextgov.com/nextgov/ng_20110826_6276.php) had an article “Analysts say online ‘hactivism’ is becoming a preferred tool of protests”. The article proposes that Computer Network Attack (CNA) has emerged as a powerful force for protesters. The article talks about the protests against the San Francisco centered Bay Area Rapid Transit System which appear to be organized by the group Anonymous.

That group has innovated in its TTP (tactics, techniques and procedures) by combing CNA with on ground activity. The attack vectors are dependent on the desired result. If the group is looking to harm a target whose actions it opposes, it has turned to cyber attack as in the case of attacking Visa because it decided to stop accepting donations to Wikileaks.

Where the goal is more traditional – say blocking traffic, protesting on subway platforms or interfering with the daily commute the organization will demonstrate physically. They shield their identities in a number of ways with the Guy Fawkes mask featured in the movie “V for Vendetta” being a common means.

When dealing with urban AOs today’s MISO needs to be at least as flexible and techno savvy as our adversaries and enemies. We must appropriately employing digital influence and digital PSYACTs. Unlike non-state actors, military organizations must play by the rules. Unfortunately, in the case of the digital world the laws, rules, and doctrine have not kept pace with the battle. Computer Network Operations (CNO) are still pretty much behind the 21^st century ‘green door’ and tactical MISO soldiers are not likely to have the CNO tools and authority.

MISO is often marked by innovation on the ground, SWC and the MISO chains of command need to support digital influence in a big way. Perhaps the new MISG can establish a joint ‘center of excellence’ with the other PSYOP Groups to develop doctrine, and TTP. This Digital MISO Center of Excellence should be located at the Naval Post Graduate School so that it could benefit from the latest in IO thought leadership. Fort Hunter Liggett should be considered as a proving ground where the technique could be honed in relative isolation and supported by both Active and Reserve personnel.

I Stand Corrected - Comments on Last Week's Post

2011-08-25T12:09:00.000-07:00

After some careful research with highly credible sources, I've decided to revise my position on the Israeli/Palestinian kinetic PSYACT post. Rather than any form of information engagement, the two factions are much more like heavy weight fighters whose only strategy is to keep punching no matter what.

Neither side seems willing or able to come up with a realistic desired end state. Consequently no amount of psychological influence whether through information or via PSYACTs is likely to have a positive effect.

Monterey: The Promised Land for CA and PSYOP?

2011-08-25T12:03:00.000-07:00

Monterey, California is among the nicest places in the world. The Pacific is breathtaking and it boasts a variety of natural and manmade treasures. And even though it is not exactly a low rent neighborhood, it hosts the Defense Language Institute (DLI) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The NPS is among the most progressive of military institution and has successfully positioned itself as a “Center of Excellence” in several areas such as Information Operations and Homeland Security. Interestingly enough it has also pioneered the concept of a Civil Affairs (CA) Center of Excellence and there is talk of creating a similar PSYOP institution.

(Photo Source: The Author)

Given the world situation, the optempo and the growing need for both of these critical missions, the time has certainly come. There are also significant murmurings of the reserve components for CA and PSYOP to once again be part of the SOF world. This is another move that is long overdue.

Both CA and PSYOP need to nurture the academic side of their branches. Both branches will face heightened demand in the 21^st century because they are vital across the spectrum of conflict. Faced with a changing political and technological environment in which to operate, the branches need to have some academic space to think about how to optimize the way their soldiers are prepared to execute the mission. This type of strategic/academic thinking is best when not influenced by the current doctrine so as to avoid tunnel vision and the ‘we always did it that way’ syndrome.

Kudos to all those involved and be prepared to write your Senator and Congressperson when it comes time for budgets and funding.