All too often we have used the phrase “Prepared to fight the
last war.” Regrettably it looks like we are about to go through a phase of
resetting our Strategy and TTP to make sure we’ll be successful in the next
Iraq or Afghanistan. While there are certainly aspects of lessons learned from
these conflicts that will be applicable in the future, we also need to be
developing our ability to anticipate the kinds of enemies we will face in the
future and the trajectory of enemies we fight today.
After 9/11 the US was hell bent on bringing down Al Qaeda
and Osama Bin Laden in particular. Over the past week as the Olympics gets
ready to kick off in London on the 27th of July, I started giving
some thought to what was lurking behind today’s headlines. I should add that I
have been an Adjunct Professor for an on-line College for several years so I’m
constantly dealing with new issues and trends raised by my students.
One of my students did their final project on Hezbollah’s
ability to attack in and from Latin America. He did a very solid job of
describing past attacks in Latin America notably in Argentina. Just about the
same time the Wall Street Journal published an article: “Israel Says
Intelligence Ties Hezbollah to Bulgaria Attack”. (see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443570904577542934016954016.html)
Admittedly Bulgaria is not exactly Main Street, but the fact
that such an attack could take place far from Hezbollah’s home base in Lebanon
is an intelligence indicator that their capabilities should not be
underestimated.
Hezbollah stands for the proposition that nation states will
support non-state actors that further their cause. This is especially true for
states that don’t exactly have total freedom of movement such as Iran.
Consequently we need to be more than vigilant, we need to be anticipatory so
that we can put the appropriate strategy in place that will yield the TTP
needed for kinetic and informational dominance in the conflicts of the future.
Photo source: Stratfor via Counterterrorismblog. org
Glad I did not drink my coffee before seeing this title. Hezbollah pre-dates AQ by 10-15 years depending on which dates you use for each organization's founding. In my opinion, Hezbollah is, and has been, more dangerous in the long run than AQ for several reasons. First, Hezbollah has state sponsorship as the protracted war proxy of Iran. With this sponsorship comes access to technology, material, and training on levels AQ has never had. Second, Hezbollah's thorough integration into the Lebanese government and society lends further access to support and resources. Third, Hezbollah is more than a terrorist organization in that it runs businesses and social infrastructure in and out of Lebanon giving it sources of revenue, access, and further popular support. Fourth, Hezbollah has a propaganda wing that includes a satellite television station (al-Manar), making the efforts of AQ look simplistic in comparison. Finally, Hezbollah has the one thing AQ lacked: strategic patience.
ReplyDelete@ Soldier-Cynic - your response is precisely the reason I did the post. AQ has been all over the news while Hezbollah simply goes about their nefarious business.
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