As the 2020 US Presidential election approaches, there is growing
concern about Russian interference. The NY Times on November 11, 2019 ran an
article “How Russia Meddles Abroad for Profit: Cash, Trolls and a Cult leader. (see:
https://nyti.ms/35eQVJH, which is also
the photo source.) This article is a book of sorts on how Russia extends its
influence.
While Russia can compete with either the US or China dollar for
dollar, they are able to pick their political battles outside Mother Russia.
Africa is in some ways the last frontier of foreign power influence. While some
outsiders are motivated to share the ideology, for others, like Russia, the
goal can be simple. In this case the profit motive based on controlling chromium
mines. According to the US Geologic Survey, “Chromium is critical in the
manufacturing of stainless steel. Most
stainless steel contains about 18 percent chromium; it is what hardens and
toughens steel and increases its resistance to corrosion, especially at high
temperatures.” (see: https://on.doi.gov/32YYVgc)
The Times article
is a rather lengthy one, here are some highlights. I have added the bolding
and italics to emphasize key points.
·
The Russians were
hard to miss. They appeared suddenly last year in Madagascar’s traffic-snarled
capital, carrying backpacks stuffed with cash and campaign swag
decorated with the name of Madagascar’s president.
·
Skirting electoral laws, they bought airtime on television
stations and blanketed the country with billboards.
·
But two years after the Russians’ aggressive
interference in the United States, here they were, determined to expand
their clout and apply their special brand of election meddling to a
distant political battleground.
·
The operation was
approved by President Vladimir V. Putin and coordinated by some of the
same figures who oversaw the disinformation around the 2016 American
presidential election, according to dozens of interviews with officials
in Madagascar, local operatives hired to take part in the Russian campaign and
hundreds of pages of internal documents produced by the Russian operatives.
·
In some vital
ways, the Madagascar operation mimicked the one in the United States. There was
a disinformation campaign on social media and an attempt to bolster so-called
spoiler candidates. The Russians
even recruited an apocalyptic cult leader in a strategy to split the opposition
vote and sink its chances.
·
It repeated a pattern in which Russia has
swooped into African nations, hoping to reshape their politics for material
gain. In the Central African Republic, a former Russian intelligence
officer is the top security adviser to the country’s president, while companies
linked to Mr. Prigozhin have spread across the nation, snapping
up diamonds in both legal and illegal ways, according to government
officials, warlords in the diamond trade and registration documents showing Mr.
Prigozhin’s growing military and commercial footprint.
·
Plans included the creation of a “troll
factory” to focus on social media, echoing the tactics Mr. Prigozhin
is accused
of unleashing on the United States. (Note the hyperlink to an article on
Mr. Prigozhin – Yevegny Prigozhin: who is the man leading Russia’s push into
Africa)
·
Few appeared to
have much expertise on Madagascar, or on Africa at all — and it showed, locals
said. They often used a translation application on their phones to communicate
and had little understanding of local politics.
·
In the end, the
Russians retained their prize — control over the chromium operation. They now maintain a staff of 30 in the
country, including engineers and geologists. The contract gives them a 70
percent stake in the venture, said Nirina Rakotomanantsoa, the managing
director of the Malagasy company that owns the remaining share.
This case study
is one worth reviewing in detail. PSYOPers in particular should analyze the mix
of on ground and cyber influence activities. Strategists might consider what
other countries in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere they may be similarly
targeted.