Fake Videos – Effective PSYOP Weapons

 

With the Ukraine simmering and maybe boiling over, it seemed like the right time to address the role of Russia’s fake video efforts. Fox News offered “Russia, Ukraine ‘deepfake’ video, audio are concerns for US intelligence” (see: https://fxn.ws/3Iid4L0, which is a photo source).

 

FBI Cyber Division Unit Chief Pranav Shah told Fox News “the technology, once reserved for cyber wizards, is becoming more user-friendly. He says it is getting easier to make these digital deceptions, and they aren't always illegal. Several parodies of Tom Cruise and other actors exist online.”

 

A more entertaining report can be found with the UK Guardian: “Dumb and lazy’: the flawed films of Ukrainian ‘attacks’ made by Russia’s ‘fake factory’. (See: https://bit.ly/3BJbzDk, another photo source.) The lead for the Guardian Article expresses something that Fox missed:

“Bellingcat founder Elliot Higgins says Russia’s propaganda films have got worse but that Russian viewers, especially the older generation, tend to believe fake TV footage.”

 

The real issue isn’t the quality of the Russian videos or whether crack US intelligence agencies can quickly determine that videos are fakes. The issue is simply: does the target audience believe the video and is it effective in changing their behavior in favor of Russia?

 

An interesting source on fake videos, etc. is https://www.bellingcat.com/. They describe themselves:

“Bellingcat is an independent international collective of researchers, investigators and citizen journalists using open source and social media investigation to probe a variety of subjects – from Mexican drug lords and crimes against humanity, to tracking the use of chemical weapons and conflicts worldwide. With staff and contributors in more than 20 countries around the world, we operate in a unique field where advanced technology, forensic research, journalism, investigations, transparency and accountability come together.” (Source: https://www.bellingcat.com/about/)

 

Elliot Higgins, the organization’s founder noted that “international audiences were mostly impervious to Kremlin disinformation. But he said domestic Russian viewers tended to believe fake TV footage, which was “theatrically” created for state propaganda purposes. This was especially true of the older generation”

 

It would appear that Mr. Putin, in addition to be a distinguished alum of the KGB has firmly grasped the importance of winning his public’s opinion. He has also correctly recognized that the quality of the product is not nearly as important as getting out to the target audience quickly and often.

 

If you would like to learn more, then check out this thread on Twitter at: https://bit.ly/3JULofT The Twitter chain also provides some interesting analysis on the nature of the video as evidence of a False Flag operation.

 

If you would like a detailed video showing how memes can be employed you can check out: https://bit.ly/3h7L3Kp - picture below. 

 

 

As a bit of a practical exercise this past weekend (19/20 Feb 2022) I took both my iPhone 13 and my Sony A1000 on location in and around Monterey. It didn’t take long for me to realize that the iPhone is a terrific personal influence weapon. I could easily go from video to photo and vary the video to cinematographic mode – although I haven’t quite figured out the difference.

 

Bottom line: Video is a critical and effective influence weapon and we all need to fire ‘expert’.

 

 

 

 

Myanmar’s Latest Battle is With FaceBook (Meta) in a California Court Room

We all know and agree that social media is an important influence vector. The latest activity on the world stage is a class action suit against Meta (the former FaceBook) by the Rohingya people of Myanmar who claim that Meta benefited from the harm that the Myanmar government, particularly the military has inflicted upon them.

The first article is entitled:

Facebook as a Military Weapon in Myanmar? Meta’s Legal Battle Could Draw a New Line

The article actually starts out by addressing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 which has shielded FaceBook from liability shielding them because they are an “information content provider” that serves as an information conduit and not a creator of information.

A key paragraph appears toward the end:

“It has been proven time and time again. Social media is a rapidly spreading platform that nation-states, terrorists, political parties, and other agenda-based groups use to incite fear, sway opinion, and garner support – often through disinformation (such as bots and deepfakes) and timely inflammatory commentary. This case may not involve Section 230 directly (depending on whether the court applies it or not), but it could very well sway policy and raise new legal issues in the near future.”

You can find it at: https://bit.ly/3fjQ95a

Another, more comprehensive article on the lawsuit trigger is in Reuters:

Analysis: Rohingya lawsuit against Facebook a 'wake-up call' for social media. It is also a photo source and you can find it at: https://reut.rs/3feZBXE

My colleagues of the California Bar, Edelson PC and Fields PLLC have filed a $150 billion class-action complaint here in Northern California. They argue “that Facebook's failure to police content and its platform's design contributed to violence against the Rohingya community.” 

The article continues with a quote from an attorney pundit:

“It was a sign that the tech giant was rattled, said Debbie Stothard, founder of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (ALTSEAN), an advocacy group.

"The timing of these announcements shows the lawsuit is a wake-up call. The lawsuit itself is quite a bold move, but the Rohingya clearly felt there were sufficient grounds," she said.

"Strategic litigation like this - you never know where it can go. In recent times we have seen climate-change litigation becoming more commonplace and getting some wins," she added.

The article indicates that the Plaintiff wants to apply Myanmar law to the claims in the California Court if the Section 230 defense is raised.  The Federal Court can decide which law to follow because of the legal concept of diversity of jurisdiction. The discretion is the court’s.

Internet giants such as Meta and Google have come under increasing attention and scrutiny. While Eric Goldman, a professor of law at Santa Clara University School of Law was quoated as saying “"Based on the precedents, this case should lose - - - But you've got so much antipathy towards Facebook nowadays - anything is possible."

The message for PSYOPers is that Social Media remains a cesspool of information and no matter what the courts decide, Social Media will remain an outsized influence.

The Russians and Iranians Show Us Why We Need Influence Ranger School

 On November 16, 2021 The Brookings Institute ran an article “How the Kremlin has weaponized the Facebook files” (see: https://brook.gs/3CAi3Dll, which is also a photo source).

 

Many of us have followed France Haugen’s denouncements of Facebook to learn more about the internal workings of the internet juggernaut. This article describes how the Russians have exploited the whistleblower to “paint the United States as hypocritical in its support for freedom of expression and provided a boost for China’s autocratic model of internet governance, normalizing Russia’s own repressive model.” 

 

The Russian propagandists are showing a remarkable ability to adapt various situations and sources to accomplish their disinformation mission. Among other things the article continues “Russian state media has seized on Haugen’s testimony to argue that her revelations reveal the benefits of China’s model of internet governance.”

 

Another adversary, Iran has also been a player in strategic disinformation as demonstrated by the recent indictment of two Iranian nationals were charged in campaign to undermine 2020 US election (see: https://abcn.ws/3qQtMv5)

This article noted: "As alleged, Kazemi and Kashian were part of a coordinated conspiracy in which Iranian hackers sought to undermine faith and confidence in the U.S. Presidential elections," said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Damian Williams.”

 

Today’s posting is not an analysis of either of these two disinformation attacks, but rather an argument that perhaps we need to vary our influence operations training to a sort of “Influence Ranger School” (no tab of course).

 

I have always admired those who have graduated Ranger School because they demonstrated the drive, discipline and teamwork needed to overcome the school’s rigorous demands and because they learned survival and coping skills in hostile environments such as the mountains and the swamp.

 

It seems to me that given the top to bottom nature of influence operations (meaning from strategic through operational and down to tactical) requires new, innovative, and rigorous training. This training should include the digital and technical side as well as working with new cultural and linguistic environments as well.

 

Some of the training could be classroom or online. However, there is a critical need for field training in unfamiliar physical environments.

 

PSYOP has always lived in the shadows of Special Forces, the time has come to elevate the influence game and beat the adversary on our terms rather than becoming the global informational punching bag.

 

The Shoemaker’s Children Are Barefoot – or who counter’s enemy influence on the US military?

A number of publications including the prestigious www.foreignpolicy.com reported on October 21, 2021 that the “U.S. Army Failed to Warn Troops About COVID-19 Disinformation” ( see: https://bit.ly/3vDwnsJ which is also a photo source)

According to the article close to 90% of the DOD workforce had not received any information from their chain of command about Chinese or Russian propaganda aiming to sow doubt and fear about the virus and Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines. In violation of a key security principle, neither service members or DOD civilian employees were advised as to how and to whom suspected disinformation should be reported to.

To be fair there were efforts to raise the issue of disinformation to service members and DOD civilians. The Vietnam Veterans Association (disclosure: I am a Life Member) published a survey on September 17, 2019 which you can find at: https://bit.ly/3E24BsS, which is another photo source.

The website, www.defenseone.com on September 17, 2021 (see: https://bit.ly/2ZgcYT8) briefly reported “Countering disinformation. The Army is working to disrupt disinformation online by trying to get inside a perpetrator’s OODA Loop—which stands for observe, orient, decide, act—when they see efforts to spread lies, Defense One reports. The U.S. evacuation operation in Afghanistan is a recent example where the military saw adversaries spread misinformation about the event on social media.”, (see: https://bit.ly/2ZgcYT8), but I couldn’t find any other information about that effort.

As with many of my postings, the point is not to report the news, but to analyze it.

Clearly enemy propaganda is an OPSEC concern which is the province of the J/G/S3. 

However, where does the buck start? Is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs responsible for putting out guidance down the chain of command? Should the service proponent (the JFK Special Warfare Center & School at Fort Bragg) be responsible for providing the guidance through the proper chains of command?

Is each of the 11 Combatant CDRs responsible for the spiderwebbing of guidance on how to spot enemy disinformation and what the individual should do about it.

Frankly, I certainly don’t know. My concern is that neither does anyone else!

Reader input encouraged.

At Least the Taliban Learned Something

While the speed of the Taliban take over of Afghanistan was perhaps a surprise, the ultimate result, at least in my humble opinion – was not.

 

In the interests of full disclosure, I remind readers that I am a Viet Nam Veteran, and as one of my colleagues used to say “Deja Doo Doo – I have seen this shit before.”

 

I am not going to dwell on the operational aspects, but to point out that the Taliban have learned that there is much to be gained by influencing perception. The August 20, 2021 online NY Times ran “How the Taliban Turned Social Media into a Tool for Control” (see: https://nyti.ms/3zgvDdZ

, which is also a photo source).

The Taliban were quick to capitalize on their operational success and to leverage social media as a way to influence their opposition that in the words of the Borg “Resistance is futile.” This is a cost-effective and judicious battlefield multiplier. As you may recall I posted “Of Course The Taliban Are PSYOP Experts! They Don’t Have Much Competition” (see: PSYOP Regimental Blog: Of Course The Taliban Are PSYOP Experts! They Don’t Have Much Competition!). 

Creativity is not lost on the Taliban and they have recognized the importance of personification by alluding to “Tommy Ghani”. Sort of an Afghan “Uncle Tom” if you will, Tommy Ghani, according to the Times and other publications is a derogatory term for Afghans who adopt Western ways using their former President Ashraf Ghani who is currently residing in the UAE along with millions of dollars he took with him when he left.

Afghans with mobile phones are fair targets for Taliban propaganda. “Experts estimate that 70% of the population has access to a mobile phone.” FaceBook and Twitter are the primary vehicles. 

The Taliban recognize that they don’t have to change world opinion to benefit from social media. They understand that targeted influence to reduce opposition, particularly from those in a position to harm them or orchestrate others can be a tremendous battlefield multiplier.

However, there are also two sides to the Taliban social media coin as well.

1. Some believe that online resistance can be expected especially from the generation that grew up under the previous permissive administrations.

2. The networks that serve as the vehicle for Taliban social media are also lucrative sources for NATO intelligence. Breaking Defense featured an article on August 24, 2021, “Afghanistan’s Precarious Networks: Will the Taliban, Once Again, Go Dark?” (See: https://bit.ly/3sGNMzo, which is also a photo source). The nub of the article is simple: “The Taliban now faces a decision: Ban the internet as the group did during its first rule, while hindering its propaganda windfall and other online activities, or leave the country's networks intact, allowing an avenue for continued US electronic surveillance.”

It is pretty clear that today’s Taliban has indeed learned about influence operations during the past twenty years. NATO is no longer on the ground, it remains to be seen if they can effectively harness the information domain for future operations.

 

Booming Job Market For PSYOPers

 

In case you are thinking about transitioning from PSYOP, it looks like your skill set is in high demand. The NY Times online edition, 25 July 2021 and the 26 July 2021 print version ran an article "Disinformation for Hire, a Shadow Industry is Quietly Booming". (See https://nyti.ms/2Wu7EcX, which is also a photo source.)

The essence of the article is that the Cambridge Analytica/Facebook incident has stimulated disinformation into a big business. While nation states such as Russia, Iran and China among others employ shell proxies, now this service is available to anyone who will pay for it. According to the article, "The result is an accelerating rise in polarizing conspiracies, phony citizen groups and fabricated public sentiment deteriorating our chared reality beyond even the depths of recent years".

The article summarizes the business this way:

"Private firms, straddling traditional marketing and the shadow world of geopolitical influence operations, are selling services once conducted principally by intelligence agencies. They sow discord, meddle in elections, seed false narratives and pus viral conspiracies, mostly on social media And they offer clients something precious: deniability."

Business is so good that some experts believe that the for profit disinformation segment is actually bigger than the government proxy segment. It's quite the global business with Oxford University (UK) researchers believing that operations were run in at least 48 countries.

I'll leave the bulk of the article to your reading, but let me offer two final paragraphs in conclusion:

"But governments may find that outsourcing such shadowy work also carries risks, Mr. Graham Brookie, direct of the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab said. For one, the firms are harder to control and might veer into undesired messages or tactics. For another, firms organized around deceit may just as likely to turn those energies toward their clients, bloating budgets and billing for work that never gets done.

As always, reader comments encouraged, but --- no resumes please.

The Creative Economy –leading edge PSYOP or a fad?

 

You often hear the expression “follow the money”. In case you are interested this goes all the way back to the movie All The President’s Men and meant you can figure out political corruption by analyzing money transfers.

 

Venture capitalists (VCs) are considered among the 21^st century’s major money sources. According to the July 12 NY Times (see: https://nyti.ms/3i5wgjj, which is a photo source), “The online influencer culture is starting to draw serioblogus interest from big venture capital firms. But the real money could be in digital tools, not the personalities.”

 

The VCs are creating an investment boom in the ‘so-called creator or influencer economy’.

The creator economy is named for social media ‘creators’ who are people that monetize their on line persona. I should point out the creators are generally young (under 30?) and digital natives – meaning they grew up with high speed technology.

 

The article continues “The creator economy, which provides digital tools to influencers and helps them run their businesses, is a huge, largely unexplored market.”  VCs have reportedly invested $2 billion into 50 creator-focused startups so far this year.

 

Two companies mentioned as provided tools are Dispo and Poparazzi.

Dispo is a photo staring ap which is considered a rival to Instagram.

Dispo as an invite-only picture sharing ap and you can learn more about it at:https://cnb.cx/3yR4z4A

 

Poparazzi (http://www.poparazzi.com/) is another tool mentioned and it is an app that mimics the concept of paparazzi because it is a photo sharing ap that encourages the network of friends to share photos among the group. The Apple App store features it here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/poparazzi/id1513680970 (also a photo source)

 

Another tool, Sub-stack (https://substack.com/) allows writers to set up paid subscriptions to newsletters. It also provides authods with an on line platform that can provide analytics, and design tools.

 

The TikTok platform is generally given credit for jump starting the creative economy and contines to be the most popular downloaded ap (see: https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/tiktok-continues-to-hold-its-position-at-the-top-of-the-monthly-app-downlo/601414/, which is another photo source).

 

The implications for PSYOPers is that new tools can help turn anyone into an online personality. This means that the on-line influence playing field is continuing to level and that adversaries can be expected to mount effective influence campaigns with very limited budgets.