Read The Enemy’s Manual Whenever You Can

If you have seen George C. Scott as LTG George S. Patton, you might remember him saying “Rommel: you magnificent bastard, I read your book!”. If you don’t remember the scene, click here. Patton was of course referring to Rommel’s book “Infantry Tactics” in which the famed Armor Commander talked about his World War I experience employing speed, deception, aggressive action and surprise to win battles.

As the 2020 US Presidential election approaches, there is growing concern about Russian interference. The NY Times on November 11, 2019 ran an article “How Russia Meddles Abroad for Profit: Cash, Trolls and a Cult leader. (see: https://nyti.ms/35eQVJH, which is also the photo source.) This article is a book of sorts on how Russia extends its influence.

While Russia can compete with either the US or China dollar for dollar, they are able to pick their political battles outside Mother Russia. Africa is in some ways the last frontier of foreign power influence. While some outsiders are motivated to share the ideology, for others, like Russia, the goal can be simple. In this case the profit motive based on controlling chromium mines. According to the US Geologic Survey, “Chromium is critical in the manufacturing of stainless steel. Most stainless steel contains about 18 percent chromium; it is what hardens and toughens steel and increases its resistance to corrosion, especially at high temperatures.” (see: https://on.doi.gov/32YYVgc)

The Times article is a rather lengthy one, here are some highlights. I have added the bolding and italics to emphasize key points.

·      The Russians were hard to miss. They appeared suddenly last year in Madagascar’s traffic-snarled capital, carrying backpacks stuffed with cash and campaign swag decorated with the name of Madagascar’s president.

·      Skirting electoral laws, they bought airtime on television stations and blanketed the country with billboards.

·      But two years after the Russians’ aggressive interference in the United States, here they were, determined to expand their clout and apply their special brand of election meddling to a distant political battleground.

·      The operation was approved by President Vladimir V. Putin and coordinated by some of the same figures who oversaw the disinformation around the 2016 American presidential election, according to dozens of interviews with officials in Madagascar, local operatives hired to take part in the Russian campaign and hundreds of pages of internal documents produced by the Russian operatives.

·      In some vital ways, the Madagascar operation mimicked the one in the United States. There was a disinformation campaign on social media and an attempt to bolster so-called spoiler candidates. The Russians even recruited an apocalyptic cult leader in a strategy to split the opposition vote and sink its chances.

·      It repeated a pattern in which Russia has swooped into African nations, hoping to reshape their politics for material gain. In the Central African Republic, a former Russian intelligence officer is the top security adviser to the country’s president, while companies linked to Mr. Prigozhin have spread across the nation, snapping up diamonds in both legal and illegal ways, according to government officials, warlords in the diamond trade and registration documents showing Mr. Prigozhin’s growing military and commercial footprint.

·      Plans included the creation of a “troll factory” to focus on social media, echoing the tactics Mr. Prigozhin is accused of unleashing on the United States. (Note the hyperlink to an article on Mr. Prigozhin – Yevegny Prigozhin: who is the man leading Russia’s push into Africa)

·      Few appeared to have much expertise on Madagascar, or on Africa at all — and it showed, locals said. They often used a translation application on their phones to communicate and had little understanding of local politics.

·      In the end, the Russians retained their prize — control over the chromium operation. They now maintain a staff of 30 in the country, including engineers and geologists. The contract gives them a 70 percent stake in the venture, said Nirina Rakotomanantsoa, the managing director of the Malagasy company that owns the remaining share.

This case study is one worth reviewing in detail. PSYOPers in particular should analyze the mix of on ground and cyber influence activities. Strategists might consider what other countries in Africa, Latin America and elsewhere they may be similarly targeted.

Black and Gray are the New Red, White and Blue

Community radio was the most trusted medium noted in one of my posts about influence and information during disasters. Local news is still more trusted than national news. While there has been a tremendous decline in newspapers in the US. According to The Pew Institute “The estimated total U.S. daily newspaper circulation (print and digital combined) in 2018 was 28.6 million for weekday and 30.8 million for Sunday, down 8% and 9%, respectively, from the previous year.” And “Weekday print circulation decreased 12% and Sunday print circulation decreased 13%.”

In spite of the decline of true local news sources, the trust of local news sources remains high. It’s no wonder that our adversaries are jumping on that bandwagon. The New York Times on October 31, 2019 ran an article “Americans Trust Local News. That Belief is Being Exploited” (see: https://nyti.ms/33oTEj9, which is also the photo source. 

Adversarial attention to local news outlets builds on the growing distrust the American population has for national news outlets according to the article. Interestingly enough the efforts extend throughout the US with a network over 35 fake local websites in Michigan along according to the Lansing State Journal.

These fake sites shore up their appeal by combining local releases and announcements with their own content. Sites have names that look legitimate but are confusing by design to obfuscate their true origin. The article pointed out that many of these fake sites incorporate material gleaned from conservative sources. Once such source is the Daily Caller. While the Daily Caller isn’t labeled as a conservative oriented source, readers would quickly be able to determine their viewpoint.

There is a synergy with these gray (hard to determine source) propaganda sites and white (identity clearly stated). The article noted that “In August and September, President Trump’s official Facebook page linked three times to the Minnesota Sun, which had published commentaries by the leader of the state’s Republican Party and the chief operating officer of the Trump re-election campaign.”

There are some interesting lessons learned for PSYOPers.

1.     Community sources remain trusted.

2.     Even discerning information consumers would have difficult tracing sources on ‘fake’ sites.

3.     Localizing information sources requires a combination of true local material to maintain credibility.

4.     There is a blend of Gray and Black propaganda sites.

5.     Material that supports the point of view of the site producer can be imported from a variety of sources including legitimate ones.

Here’s an informative piece of advice while watching the 2020 elections: http://bit.ly/2NoBqcg