Friday, June 13, 2014

Iraq - Deja Doo Doo!

One of my esteemed MI colleagues, a former FAA Air Marshall, Green Beret/MI Colonel and collector of Pierce Arrow antique cars used to say “Deja Doo Doo” which means I have seen this sh*t before.

And so it goes with Iraq. The crack Iraqi military, after years of training, blood, sweat and treasure seems to be no better off than they were at the start of OIF. President Obama is now in a position he doesn’t like to be – making a quick decision that might involve military force.

Historically the President first reaches for airstrikes. The theory is that this avoids ‘boots on the ground’ and today’s very smart weapons can theoretically pinpoint enemy targets with great accuracy and minimal prospects for collateral damage.

Unfortunately the decision will not be so simple this time. My impression is that we have a roving asymmetric, insurgency like force in an urban AO who is easily able to blend in with the population. Key will be their ability to avoid SIGINT vulnerabilities and sufficient deception operations to avoid UAS and smart bombs.

Where does that leave MISO?

If it were me, I’d pick some specific targets, annihilate the crap out of them and then mount a ‘you can run, but you cannot hide’ campaign. While I’m clearly not on the ground, it seems to me that the fighters in Iraq are seasoned WRT to the Syrian theater. The use of overwhelming high tech American weaponry may be enough to motivate them to retreat across the border.

This may also be a time to leverage mobile phone MISO, EW and other technological means that would disrupt the enemy’s chain of command.

Looking forward to reader input.

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